Will China's Rise Lead to War? | Foreign

Will China's Rise Lead to War? | Foreign Affairs

• The rise of China will likely be the most important international relations story of the twenty-first century, but it remains unclear whether that story will have a happy ending.



• China, unlike the Soviet Union, will prove a serious economic competitor as well as a geopolitical one



• because the current international order is defined by economic and political openness, it can accommodate China's rise peacefully.



• The United States and other leading powers, this argument runs, can and will make clear that China is welcome to join the existing order and prosper within it, and China is likely to do so rather than launch a costly and dangerous struggle to overturn the system and establish an order more to its own liking.



• China's growing strength, most realists argue, will lead it to pursue its interests more assertively, which will in turn lead the United States and other countries to balance against it



• The dangers that do exist, moreover, are not the ones predicted by sweeping theories of the international system in general but instead stem from secondary disputes particular to Northeast Asia -- and the security prevalent in the international system at large should make these disputes easier for the United States and China to manage.



• Conflict is not predetermined -- and if the United States can adjust to the new international conditions, making some uncomfortable concessions and not exaggerating the dangers, a major clash might well be avoided



• The solution to the puzzle lies in the concept of the security dilemma -- a situation in which one state's efforts to increase its own security reduce the security of others.



• Current international conditions should enable both the United States and China to protect their vital interests without posing large threats to each other



• Large-scale conventional attacks by China against the U.S. homeland, meanwhile, are virtually impossible because the United States and China are separated by the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean, across which it would be difficult to attack



• United States and China will be able to maintain high levels of security now and through any potential rise of China to superpower status



• According to neo-isolationists, in short, China's rise will not jeopardize U.S. security, but maintaining current U.S. alliances could.



• Some realist pessimists argue that in order to be highly secure, China will find itself compelled to pursue regional hegemony, fueling conflict along the way.



• However, China's size, power, location, and nuclear arsenal will make it very challenging to attack successfully.



• The prospects for avoiding intense military competition and war may be good, but growth in China's power may nevertheless require some changes in U.S. foreign policy that Washington will find disagreeable -- particularly regarding Taiwan.



• Current U.S. policy is designed to reduce the probability that Taiwan will declare independence and to make clear that the United States will not come to Taiwan's aid if it does.



• Given the different interests and perceptions of the various parties and the limited control Washington has over Taipei's behavior, a crisis could unfold in which the United States found itself following events rather than leading them.



• Not all adversaries are Hitler, and when they are not, accommodation can be an effective policy tool.



• The challenge for the United States will come in making adjustments to its policies in situations in which less-than-vital interests (such as Taiwan) might cause problems and in making sure it does not exaggerate the risks posed by China's growing power and military capabilities.

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